2025
100 DAYS OF MAYHEM
What does imposing tariffs on an island solely populated by penguins, rehiring mistakenly fired public servants and a top security leak detailing attack plans have in common? The sloppiness of the first three months of the Trump White House which promised peace only to deliver a tariff war, hiking prices after promising lower inflation.
This from an administration which had plotted its vengeful return for years. And uncertainty became a modus operandi as the U.S. adjusted some of the tariffs while doubling down on China. By then protests had taken to the streets of dozens of cities, and it was hard to tell what was upsetting Americans the most. To a shaky wall protecting it from foreign goods, driving up prices and sending retirement funds in a downward spiral, the White House added new scrutiny for visitors at the border which sometimes made the return of US residents themselves a concern.
Meanwhile the tariffs could come or go, the bitterness of those targeted, including close allies, would remain. All the upheaval of an entire mandate concentrated in under 100 days of mayhem and chaos which upset partners and sent markets on a wild ride, affecting Americans as much as the foreigners it was all supposed to read the riot act to. No land, no matter how small, distant or devoid of actual human presence seemed spared. But not all countries were defenseless and desolate rocks off Antarctica. Some were powerful and quite populous nations willing to defend themselves against unwarranted aggression.
China's decision to impose retaliatory tariffs against the US, joining Canada and other nations ready for a fight, further sent markets reeling. The European Union readied its own response, after a summit held with Central Asian countries that now seemed to be more reliable trade partners. Asean countries meanwhile also coordinated their response as Beijing looked to enhance regional co-operation. In the midst of all this Americans, including Trump voters, were hardly spared, Michigan auto workers seeing an immediate impact leading to hundreds of layoffs in the much valued auto sector. Staunch supporters of the president seemed to agree with his assessment the pain was a necessary moment to pass to achieve greatness, but others joined the street protests to say this was not the change they had voted for, setting the stage for a possible tidal wave at the ballot box next year.
The mid-term election seems many difficult months away at a time politics is taking place at warp speed, and not necessarily heading in the right direction. The stock market reaction in fact is "telling Americans who are listening that there are future job cuts, higher inflation and likely an American recession ahead," warned Canadian prime minister Mark Carney, whose popularity has soared despite leading a party in power for the last decade and on life support only a few months ago. A recession, for all America's efforts to separate itself from the wider world, would drag other countries down with it.
To retaliate against Washington's bellicosity Europeans caught the Canadian habit of fighting back by avoiding US goods and travel, favouring alternative options. Canada was by then going one step further by adding, next to the Maple Leaf stickers highlighting Canadian products on retail shelves, others marked by a T, identifying imported goods impacted by the tariffs. In any case they have been easy to spot lately, as they tend to sit untouched on shelves Canadians have chosen to ignore in favour of domestic goods.
The US and its products used to be cool and cutting edge but now faced boycotts to the delight of its rivals. The US also used to be a top destination, but has seen a drop in visits, both as a result of boycott and to avoid potential aggressive questioning by border guards, leading some airlines to trim their routes there in favour of other destinations. All of these repercussions did not fail to get noticed in Washington, causing divisions in the midst of the administration itself, as billionaire Elon Musk criticized the tariffs and called presidential trade advisor Peter Navarro a "moron", while rich backers who had supported Trump balked at the tariffs.
These were other key relationships that were being tested by weeks of uncertainty and turbulence leaving much of the world in chaos. The Trump administration said its tariff about face with most countries was all part of the plan, claiming some 75 nations had responded to the tariffs by rushing to the negotiating table - this would have to be quite a large table considering the number of countries involved. But analysts weren't so sure, saying that jittery bond markets heralding the worst probably forced the US to go back on tariffs unleashed just days before.
The trade war with China continued however and enabled Beijing - hardly a model of democracy itself - to call for a united front against the "Trump tyranny", turning a movement, which had once sought to isolate the middle kingdom, against the US. But even against China, which halted much-needed rare earth exports to the US, the White House had to tone down its measures, allowing tariff exemptions on some high tech goods very much in demand. The day to day climate of uncertainty of what to expect from what used to be a champion of free trade and commerce remained, and for many the damage was already done on many fronts. Countries were vying for new alliances, travellers for new destinations and businesses looking for new partners and customers until the dust settled. Whenever that may be. "The genie is still out of the bottle on policy unpredic-tability," remarked a group of Deutsche Bank strategists.
UNE AUTRE SAISON D'ENFER?
Les pas se pressent sur les pavés à l'approche de midi sur Carrera Espinel dans la communauté montagnarde de Ronda. Les visiteurs affluent, passant devant les vitrines de boutiques de chaussures, de souvenirs ou de jambons ibériques, vers le mirador qui leur permettra d'observer le spectacle de maisonnettes écarlates perchées au-dessus d'une gorge profonde, brillantes comme une couronne de dents posée sur le paysage aride du sud espagnol.
On y joue un peu des coudes près du Puente Nuevo qui relie l'ancienne ville mauresque à la nouvelle et sa place des toros à deux pas, troupes d'explorateurs de tous les accents suivant les passagers de cars venus de Malaga, et on est pourtant en pleine saison creuse. Pouvez-nous imaginer juillet au pied de la Sagrada Familia en plein Barcelone? Nathan y prévoit pourtant une brève visite alors que le chef d'oeuvre centenaire de Gaudi approche la pose de la dernière pierre. Ce sera la galère en plein été, avoue ce fonctionnaire canadien sans illusion, mais la famille a aussi l'idée de se réfugier dans la campagne française par la suite pour éviter les foules lors de son périple européen. Par sûr que cette destination ne soit plus démunie de visiteurs.
Ils ne seront pas les seuls à visiter les deux pays qui accueillent le plus de touristes au monde. De nombreux Européens qui se seraient dirigés aux Etats-Unis songent d'ailleurs de se tourner vers d'autres destinations pour éviter l'accueil sévère de la nouvelle administration améri-caine. Sans Jeux Olympiques, Paris retrouvera ses foules de toujours. Venise ne sera pas plus épargnée même si elle exigera quelques tunes à l'entrée.
Depuis quelques années ces revenus ne suffisent plus pour oublier les désagréments du tourisme de masse. La péninsule ibérique a déjà repris les manifestations en vue d'une saison de tonnerre lancée avec la semaine de Pâques. A la veille de celle-ci des milliers d'Espagnols défilaient dans plus de 40 villes du pays, accusant le gouvernement d'avoir peu agi pour limiter les effets de ce flux de visiteurs qui pourrait atteindre plus de 100 millions de personnes d'ici peu, comme en France.
Conséquence directe de ce torrent touristique, une hausse du coût du logement qui dans certains cas a doublé les loyers en quelques années. Le gouvernement a admis que le pays vivait une "urgence sociale". Selon une étude il y aura un manque de 600000 à un million de logements au pays d'ici quatre ans. Madrid proposait plus tôt cette année une taxe de 100% aux propriétaires non citoyens de l'UE et a créé des incitations visant le secteur de la construction. Mais pour plusieurs manifestants, ce n'est pas assez.
A Majorque ils ont défilé sous le thème "mettons fin au commerce de l'habitation". "L'avarice des hôteliers, politiciens, investisseurs immobiliers et 'parasites' de tout genre" a détérioré l'écosystème de l'île, submerge les services publics et facilite la gentrification, accusent des militants dans une lettre. En guise de conclusion ils implorent les touristes d'éviter leur île, les désignant de "source de nos problèmes." Dans une autre localité prisée, Tenerife, des manifestants avaient participé à une grève de la faim l'an dernier contre deux développements hôteliers qui selon eux avaient obligé les locaux à dormir dans leurs voitures ou même des grottes locales, parce qu'ils ne pouvaient plus se permettre de payer le loyer.
Des militants s'en sont pris à des voitures de location récemment, menaçant de cibler les aéroports. Aux Canaries, un tiers de la population serait au bord de la pauvreté. En mai 15 groupes militants d'Espagne, de France, du Portugal et d'Italie organisent un sommet pour coordonner leurs efforts contre le tourisme non durable. Dans certains coins l'été pourrait être plus chaud que d'habitude.
LONG ARM OF THE LAW
International justice has long been mocked by criminals and justice dodgers, but not all leaders can perpetually escape the long arm of the law it turns out. While president Vladimir Putin mocked the International Criminal Court's warrant against him, and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu thought little more of his himself, the Philippines' former president Rodrigo Duterte was taken into custody and dragged to The Hague after a warrant was issued by the world court for his arrest.
While some presidents can claim sweeping immunities from prosecution, others are facing the music from South America to Asia. Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro was recently told he would have to stand trial on coup attempt charges after a decision by the Supreme Court. Bolsonaro claimed the accusations, made after supporters tried to imitate the Jan. 6 US insurrection and attacked government buildings, were politically motivated. The country is currently led by a president who has himself served time in jail. Meanwhile South Korea's Soon Suk Yeol was another leader who had to answer for this acts while in office, notably declaring martial law after a period of legislative paralysis. He was recently released from prison as he awaits trial for insurrection.
The ICC arrested Duterte on home soil in Manila for alleged crimes against humanity during his presidency's brutal anti-drugs crackdown, killing more than thousands of people, various monitoring groups having difficulty pinning down a definite number of victims. After years of court rulings ignored by leaders from Europe to Africa, this was a significant moment, observers say. "Many say international law is not strong," ICC prosecutor Karim Khan stated. "But international law is not as weak as some may think. When we come together, when we build partnerships, the rule of law can prevail."
Of course justice is hardly speedy as the charges will first have to be confirmed and then it could be many months before Duterte heads to trial and years before the 79-year-old is sentenced. In the mean time the arrest, occurring at a time of political tensions in the Philippines, could stir trouble at home. "Duterte’s arrest comes at a tense time in Philippine politics, with the two most powerful families, the Duterte family and Marcos family, engaged in an ongoing political feud.
The two families control the highest offices in the Philippines, with Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. as the current president and Sara Duterte, Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter, as the vice president," writes Tyler J. Brigham in The Geopolitics. "Tensions between the two families and their supporters are on the rise. As Duterte goes to trial in the following months, a politically divided Philippines could see civil unrest from Duterte’s supporters." In time these have become the two most powerful and influential families in the country over the last decades, starting with former dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr., the father of current president Marcos Jr., from the 1960s until the late 1980s.
That's when the Duterte dynasty began, with the rise of Rodrigo Duterte, first as city mayor. In 2022 the two dynasties ran together on the same ticket, but it wasn't long before divisions began and worsened to the point daughter Sara mentioned she had ordered a hitman to kill the president. An investigation later found her responsible for misuse of public funds and she was impeached. An investigation led by the legislature targeted Sara Duterte and her offices over the misuse of $10.5 M. Her father's arrest has sparked mass protests by supporters in a politically charged up period leading to May's mid-term elections.
French justice has also come down with decisions targeting politicians, former president Sarkozy facing years in prison for accepting funds from Kadhafi while right wing leader Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement, barring her from running in 2027.
AN AMERICAN POPE
At a time an American president is causing disruption across the world, can an American pope set things right and, in the words of Pope Leo XIV, "build bridges" to "become a single people"? His election certainly came as a surprise, the 133 cardinals gathering in the Sistine chapel, under the masterpiece of Michelangelo choosing Chicago-born Robert Prevost, a 69 year-old Augustinian friar who spent most of his career as a missionary in Peru and was made cardinal just two years ago.
His election on the second day of conclave seemed to indicate continuity in the path of the late Pope Francis of reaching out to the broader world. Choosing the name Leo XIV was in itself by some accounts a salute to the legacy of Leo XIII, who in the late 19th century was known as the “Pope of the Workers”. On a day, May 8th, when much of the West was celebrating the 80th anniversary of peace in Europe after WWII but conflict raged in the four corners of the world, Pope Leo greeted the masses on St Peter's square with the words: "peace be with all of you" in a message he made in both Italian and Spanish.
In the days since he urged those in power to end wars, denouncing autocracy and the exploitation of the poor. He also offered to host Ukraine's peace talks at the Vatican. This came as little surprise to those who know him. "To be an instrument, a promoter of all things good for the common good, for people on the margins, for the poor, these are the values that Pope Leo has lived," told CNN Father Robert Hagan.
Little known and having given few interviews, Pope Leo had not been featured on the list of favorite papabile - another similarity with his predecessor - who included cardinals from Italy and the Philippines. His election on the second day also surprised some pundits who expected a longer conclave given the record number of cardinals and their diversity, a college which bore all the marks of the late Pope Francis, who had chosen the majority of them. Most surprising of all, perhaps, was the fact the pope chosen hailed from the world's greatest superpower, a choice some suggested was not disassociated with Donald Trump's re-election, and the path of confrontation the US president has taken over the last months since he took office.
The cardinals are quick to point out however they tend not to pay attention to their candidate's origin when making their choice. Unlike his predecessor however, Leo XIV had a Twitter account before he reached the papacy, and wasn't indifferent to decisions made by the US administration. A recent posting, on April 14, was a retweet of a fellow clergyman who said about America's deportation of a US resident: “Do you not see the suffering? Is your conscience not disturbed? How can you stay quiet?”
This reflected concerns of his about US policy going back to the travel ban of Trump's first term, when he retweeted a post commenting that “refugee bans" represented "a dark hour of US history... the world is watching as we abandon our commitment to American values” Others read: “We’re banning all Syrian refugees? The men, women and children who *most* need help? What an immoral nation we are becoming. Jesus weeps” and “Saying Trump’s ‘bad hombres’ line fuels ‘racism and nativism’..."
In another post he is quoted saying that victims of sexual abuse by priests should denounce them, a subject which over the years has brought scandal to the Church, and brought himself under scrutiny. He has been accused of mishandling accusations of child abuse and failing to investigate claims made against priests in Peru. According to US reports he is also accused of sheltering an accused paedophile in a monastery without informing a nearby school. Publicly he has urged victims to come forward, telling an Italian newspaper "We reject the cover-up and the secrecy, that does a lot of damage, because we have to help the people who have suffered from the bad act. We want to tell people that if there was any offence, if they suffered or are victims of the bad actions of a priest to come and denounce it, to act for the good of the Church, of the person and the community."
Advocacy groups regretted that Prevost never published a list of accused abusers and called for more transparency. "Some might advise giving the new pontiff benefit of the doubt. We disagree," said Anne Barrett Doyle of the group BishopAccountabi-lity.org said in a statement. "It is on Pope Leo XIV to win the trust of the victims and their families." But others credit him for supporting survivors of an abusive Catholic organization that was dissolved by Pope Francis. Predo Salinas of Ending Clergy Abuse said Prevost "stood with us when others didn't. That's why his election matters." The president of that advocacy group, Gemma Hickey, expressed hope Leo XIV would make important progress on the issue.
On this there could be no continuation. "The world is waiting. Let this pope be remembered not for the global abuse crisis he inherits, but for how he ends it." To some observers, he offers just such messages of hope. "He wants to pull down the walls that others are so rapidly putting up and he wants to overcome the nationalism, the polarization," says Vatican historian Gerard O'Connell. "He is going to continue that path that Pope Francis has traced.... but bringing something also new. He's one of those who crosses the divides in his own personal experience." Someone who will ultimately face divisions himself in the years ahead.
AUTRE REJET DE WASHINGTON
L’issue du vote de ce pays du Commonwealth a eu de quoi étonner. Il y a quelques mois à peine les conservateurs paraissaient imbattables et prêts à déplacer la gauche au pouvoir. Puis la tornade Trump s’est abbatue sur l’immense pays, donnant un nouveau souffle au parti au pouvoir et ultimement, la victoire aux urnes.
Le chef de l'opposition s'inclina, y perdant même son siège. Non il ne s’agit pas du Canada mais de cet autre pays immense où la grogne anti-américaine a pris, l'Australie. En effet les jours du Labour Party semblaient comptés plus tôt cette année lorsque la campagne a été lancée sur ce continent bien lointain. Mais les tarifs sur l'acier et l'aluminium ont vite fait de changer la donne, l'opinion publique exigeant une riposte ferme de la part de Canberra reflétant l'opinion selon laquelle deux tiers des Australiens estimaient qu'ils ne pouvaient plus compter sur les Etats-Unis, et devaient par conséquent épouser une approche plus indépendante.
Aux deux bouts du monde, le Commonwealth parlait presque d'une seule et unique voix après le choc à Ottawa. L'appui en faveur du chef du parti Libéral Peter Dutton, qui comme Poilievre avait nettement mené dans les sondages, a fondu comme une glace exposée au soleil du centre rouge et désertique du continent austral. Les deux avaient tenté d'incarner le changement et été plutôt critiques envers le "wokisme" du pouvoir, promettant de sabrer le gouvernement et vaincre la criminalité. Poilievre a beau avoir gagné des sièges conservateurs, il a perdu le sien. Dutton n'y échappa pas non plus.
A la veille du vote les sondages donnaient le Labour vainqueur avec une majorité, comme au Canada. Mais la comparaison s'arrête là. Anthony Albanese n'est pas tombé à côté de la majorité, devenant en fait le premier dirigeant à être ré-élu en 20 ans. Puis l'Australie, où le vote est obligatoire, ne partage pas une frontière ou des liens commerciaux si intimes avec les Etats-Unis. Mais l'impact trumpiste sur l'opposition a été comparable.
"Trump est devenu le troisième candidat dans cette campagne, résumait à Reuters Mark Kenny de l'Université nationale australienne, il a rendu la vie difficile à Dutton qui a eu de la difficulté à faire passer son message et à se présenter comme un personnage indépendant lors de cette campagne électorale." Puis les Australiens craignaient l'arrivée d'une poussée trumpiste chez eux. Les électeurs "ont regardé avec consternation ce qui se passe et se sont dit si c'est ça le changement je peux m'en passer," note Andrew Carswell qui a été porte-parole d'un ancien premier ministre.
Ce président américain qui a tenté d'influencer le vote d'un bout à l'autre du monde aurait provoqué l'inverse, s'attirant le rejet de masses plutôt dégoûtées par son immixion. "Aujourd'hui le peuple australien a voté pour des valeurs australiennes," a déclaré l'heureux ré-élu le soir du vote. Après avoir reçu les félicitations de son opposant "Je l'ai remercié, dit-il, c'est ce que l'on fait en Australie, nous traitons les gens avec respect." Le message envoyé à Washington ne pouvait être plus clair. "Alors que les politiques 'America First' continuent de frapper l'économie mondiale, les dirigeants de centre-droite auraient intérêt à retenir la leçon de rester à l'écart de la marque Trump," estime Kim Honey dans The Conversation.
LIBERALS RESURRECTED
First chosen by the party faithful in a snap Liberal leadership race, former bank governor Mark Carney was elected by Canadian voters but without the majority he sought to effectively deal with an increasingly assertive southern neighbor threatening to bring the continent into a recession.
Washington's aggressive stance on tariffs completely upended the outcome of the election which came after three Liberal mandates, two of them in minority governments - which made the bid to remain in power highly unlikely just months ago. Carney made clear that despite the familiar colours of the government his leadership would mark a clear departure from that of his predecessor. "As we come here after this consequential, most consequential election, let’s put an end to the division and anger of the past," he said. "We are all Canadian and my government will work for and with everyone."
With 169 ridings the Liberals made gains but will once more have to rely on others to pass legislation, having previously survived by partnering with other parties, first the Bloc Quebecois, and later the New Democrats, the latter only pulling their support in the fall amid a Liberal party revolt which ultimately led to Trudeau's departure. Leader Jagmeet Singh and Pierre Poilievre of the Conservatives lost their seat on election night, the former immediately resigning as party leader.
Carney fell just short of the 172 seat majority he sought to confront a US administration which triggered a trade war by imposing tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, also targeting some car imports. In a phone conversation earlier this year Carney and Donald Trump agreed the elected prime minister would engage in discussions on the dispute soon after the vote. Both leaders spoke the day following the vote, vowing to meet in person in short order. In his first press conference since his election Carney said this would take place the following week.
The political neophyte will have to deliver on promises of dealing effectively with the brash US president after spending a campaign touting his experience handling the 2008 financial crisis in Canada and uncertainty following Brexit in the United Kingdom. He stressed he knew how to negotiate and deal with crises, and come out of them stronger. Carney had led polls throughout the campaign and Canadians seemed to indicate they made their choice early.
In fact pollster Marc Leger said the 35-day campaign, the shortest allowable, hardly registered with the voters at all in the overall scheme of things. Pointing to poll numbers in the 43% to 38% range in favor of the Liberals which only slightly underestimated Conservative support, Leger stated: "A campaign this useless, it's unheard of." Analyst Yves Malo agreed: "Not only has the needle not moved, it has not moved during the entire campaign," he said. "We can call him Teflon Mark because nothing has stuck to him," despite a few early campaign gaffes.
Besides the tariff issue "all other issues had little impact" on the minds of the country's 28 million registered voters despite other preoccupations ranging from general affordability to doctor shortages. Canadians quickly found the economist to be a more compelling candidate to deal with Trump, preferring him over longtime politicians leading the other major parties, including Poilievre who had been dominating the polls, by as many as 20 points in the months leading to the election call, only to lose not only the election but his seat in an Ottawa riding neighboring Carney's.
Trudeau's departure and Carney's decision to end the carbon tax after winning the leadership race enabled the Liberal leader to remove the major irritants which had made the Liberals unpopular and Poilievre more appealing. The latter was often accused of sounding too much like Trump despite his shift to a discourse increasingly harder on the United States. This was the first time Carney was elected into political office. Rumors alone of his arrival in politics to replace finance minister Chrystia Freeland had caused a caucus revolt which ultimately toppled Trudeau, launching the leadership race.
After easily defeating the former deputy prime minister polls showed Carney's popularity steadily climbing among Canadians, turning a tide to make the unpopular Liberals not only contenders but favorites to win a majority. In the end Liberals had to contend with a strong minority needing just a few extra voices to push through their agenda.
Carney was at times criticized of taking advantage of his prime ministerial role choosing to pause the campaign to meet with provincial and territorial leaders to discuss tensions with the United States, a pause which allowed him to appear prime ministerial while avoiding the glare of the electoral cameras to answer questions pertaining to his personal finances. Despite a limited knowledge of French, he was able to walk away from a French TV debate relatively unscathed and gathered growing support in Quebec at levels higher than his predecessor, whose riding had been in la belle province.
The election saw both Liberals and Conservatives register results in the popular vote they hadn't seen in decades, to the detriment of smaller parties which lost seats in the two-horse race. The day following the election Bloc leader Yves-Francois Blanchet said it was time to tone down the partisan rhetoric and seize "an opportunity to work differently" in parliament to confront the southern neighbor with a united voice. At least for the next few months.
QUI POUR DIRIGER HAITI?
On n'avait pas tort de penser qu'Haïti était sans gouverne depuis quelques mois, mais ce n'est que la semaine dernière que le premier ministre a rendu sa démission après des semaines de pression de la part des gangs qui terrorisent cette bien torturée perle des Antilles.
A peine quelques jours en fait après la signature longuement attendue d'un accord sur l'envoi de policiers kenyans pour venir en aide à leurs collègues débordés, les évémenents en décidèrent autrement, et la mission qui devait ramener un semblant de paix était en suspens. Le premier ministre Ariel Henry annonçait son départ alors qu'un conseil présidentiel de transition se mettait à l'oeuvre afin de désigner un dirigeant intérimaire.
C'est un pacte entre les gangs qui dominent l'ile, unissant leurs forces afin de faire tomber le gouvernement, du moins ce qu'il en restait, qui a précipité la crise, suivi de l'attaque de l'aéroport - empêchant le retour du premier ministre de l'étranger - du port et de prisons, causant la libération de centaines de détenus, semant davantage la zizanie à Hispaniola où on avait déclenché l'état d'urgence.
Le secrétaire général de l'ONU Antonio Guterres a depuis fait appel à une "action urgente" de la part des états membres, mais difficile de voir comment la situation pouvait être plus urgente, l'attaque du port rendant la livraison de l'aide humanitaire presque impossible. "Si on ne peut pas avoir accès aux conteneurs Haïti va mourir de faim," estimait Laurent Uwumuremyi de l'organisme Mercy Corps. Les autorités américaines craignaient un effondrement du pouvoir imminent alors que les diplomates fuyaient le pays tandis qu'un pont aérien crucial était établi avec la République dominicaine avoisinnante.
Accusé d'être derrière ces attaques, et d'innombrables autres atrocités, Jimmy 'Barbecue' Chérizier, chef du gang G9, avait averti que sans cette démission du premier ministre le pays allait "tout droit vers une guerre civile qui conduira à un génocide". L'ancien policier de 46 ans sous le régime de sanctions de l'ONU se défend de répandre le chaos, accusant le pouvoir d'être responsable de l'écroulement de la nation.
"Ce sont les politiciens qui sont les vrais coupables. Les politiciens et oligarques corrompus ont apporté toutes les armes dans les quartiers populaires pour leur intérêt personnel mais pas pour le pays." Voilà donc depuis quelque temps qu'Haïti sombre dans le désordre perpétré par le mariage de gangs et partis politiques, notamment depuis l'assassinat du président en 2021, et l'enquête qui se poursuit sur cet événement sinistre malgré tout a porté d'étonnantes accusations, une d'elles contre la veuve du défunt chef d'état.
Henry à présent écarté, quel avenir pour ce triste pays? Washington exige une transition accélérée vers une autre gouvernance avec l'annonce prochaine d'élections. Car sur le terrain ce qu'il reste à sauver diminue peu à peu, notamment un système de santé «proche de l'effondrement», selon l'ONU, notant que «de nombreux établissements de santé sont fermés ou ont dû réduire drastiquement leurs opérations en raison d'une pénurie inquiétante de médicaments et de l'absence du personnel médical», évoquant également des pénuries de sang, d'équipements médicaux ou de lits pour traiter les blessés par balles.
THE PERILS OF LEADERSHIP
Less than two years into her mandate, Gatineau's first female mayor said she had had enough of the toxic environment, harassment, intimidation, and even death threats, and resigned. France Belisle wasn't alone a municipal organization noted as she bid her constituents goodbye, hundreds of other municipal leaders had done the same in previous months in Quebec.
Belisle herself said she regretted the "exodus" of officials, citing the resignation of the young mayor of the small community of Chapais and the temporary withdrawal of the mayor of another city, citing health reasons. These examples were all women, it turns out. And at a time all public officials face an increasing amount of threats and intimidation, women are often particularly targeted, it doesn't matter where they live.
In Mexico's presidential election front runner Claudia Sheinbaum says she was facing a flood of hate-filled messages after her phone number was leaked on social media. "What they want to do is obvious, once again their attacks are as crude as they are harmless," she said. Just north, the campaign of US Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley sought secret service protection after receiving a number of threats. "It's not going to stop me from doing what I need to do," Haley said defiantly after a campaign event.
It hasn't been a year since New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern quit her post after a period where she received numerous hate-filled and misogynistic messages. "Politicians are human," she said at the time. In the US, an attack at the home of then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which injured her husband, and threats against Michigan's governor, are among a series of attacks, notably against elected women, to have marked the divisive and tense political atmosphere leading to this year's elections.
In Europe a 2021 Finnish study of incidents targeting elected officials found many were facing "an elevated threat of abusive messages", mostly women. At the same the Nordic country was headed by Sanna Marin, then the youngest prime minister in the world, who headed a cabinet led by women and formed a coalition with other leaders who were also all women. Many among them were targeted by misogynistic abuse attacking their values, ridiculing their decision-making and questioning their ability to lead, the study found.
Studies have shown this sort of intimidation has discouraged women from joining politics in the first place, and shortened their careers when they tried. This is widespread. A few years ago a survey of female parliamentarians by the Inter-Parliamentary Union across 39 countries found "44 percent of surveyed women reported having received threats of death, rape, assault, or abduction. One fifth said they had been subjected to sexual violence."
In Canada according to the Privy Council Office the number of threats against federal ministers increased during the first years of the pandemic (2020-2), including 55 death threats made against the prime minister and 14 against his deputy minister, Chrystia Freeland, both of whom were caught in video footage fleeing turbulent protesters in the last years.
Twenty-six ministers received at least one reported death threat over this period, for a total of 110 in the period in a political environment charged up by divisions over vaccines and other sensitive issues often distorted by conspiracy theories on gun control and diversity "fueling violent extremist propaganda and incitement to violence". MPs and Senators have been equipped with mobile panic buttons as a result.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
How far will some countries go to track down their enemies? Israel isn't the only country that will go to the ends of the Earth to target perceived threats to the state. Foreign regimes, both friend and foe, have plotted attacks against people of interest who emigrated to North America with increasing boldness, according to multiple investigations.
One week after the RCMP staged a rare press conference to accuse Delhi of being behind the assassination of a Sikh activist in Canada, a senior Iranian military official was charged in an alleged plot to kill an Iranian-born American activist in the US. These are just the latest allegations after a series of cases of state-sponsored killings in the last years, some of which have grabbed international headlines, such as the poisoning of former Russian agent Alexander Litvinenko in London and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkiye.
The new allegations have landed in North America and are now casting a new light on the investigations of previous killings. In February the US Department of Justice said it foiled four state-sponsored assassination attempts. One of them involved a Sikh activist, in an alleged murder for hire plot disrupted by the DEA. Charges were laid two months after Justin Trudeau publicly accused India of being behind the murder of a Sikh activist. Delhi denies the Canadian accusation and asked to see the evidence. Intelligence agencies have had their eyes on these sort of attacks for years.
"We face a rising threat from authoritarian regimes who seek to reach beyond their own borders to commit acts of repression, including inside the United States," stated the DOJ's Matthew Olsen two years ago. Some of the sponsors are considered rogue states, such as Russia and Iran. Brig. Gen. Ruhollah Bazghandi, a senior official in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and three other men were charged in a plot to kill Iranian-born US author and activist Masih Alinejad.
The targets or victims were often born in the countries seeking to silence them. Other regimes, such as Saudi Arabia and India, have complex relationships with Western countries whose citizens they are allegedly targeting, something that became obvious after Trudeau's and the RCMP's statements on India, sparking a diplomatic crisis, though impact on trade has not been felt. After the chill between Saudi Arabia and the US following the Khashoggi killing, relations have thawed.
Canada and India may take longer to return to the relationship they once shared, especially as previous murders are looked at in a new light. This includes the killing of a man who had been acquitted in the 1985 Air India bombing attributed to Sikh separatists. Known criminals Tanner Fox and Jose Lopez pleaded guilty to second-degree murder in the 2022 death, but the family of the victim is asking them to cooperate and reveal who hired them to carry out the hit.
Hiring criminals to carry out state-sponsored terrorism is one of the allegations the RCMP made as it launched a special unit to investigate multiple cases of extortion, coercion and violence, including murders, linked to agents of the Indian government. In the recent case of the killing of a Sikh activist in Canada police alleged diplomats collected information which they then passed on to criminals to carry out attacks. More recently Canada went further, accusing India's Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah, a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, of being behind a campaign of violence and intimidation targeting Sikh activists.
L'OMBRE DE MOSCOU
L'ombre de Moscou planait au-dessus des appels aux urnes aux frontières de l'Europe. Certes le vote référendaire sur l'adhésion à l'Union européenne est passé en Moldavie, ce petit état voisin de l'Ukraine dont une partie du territoire est semi-autonome et russophile, mais l'ingérence étrangère de Moscou a eu son impact: il est passé avec à peine plus de 50%, un résultat référendaire presque québécois.
La présidente Maia Sandu s'est empressée de dénoncer les «ingérences sordides» lors du vote, qui représente le premier d'un nombre de défis électoraux pour ce petit pays de 3 millions d'habitants. Cette «attaque sans précédent contre la démocratie» aurait selon elle été perpétrée par «des groupes criminels, agissant de concert avec des forces étrangères hostiles à nos intérêts nationaux, (qui) ont attaqué notre pays à coups de dizaines de millions d’euros, de mensonges et de propagande».
L'exercice aurait eu l'ambition d'acheter non moins de 300,000 votes, des institutions nationales ayant «documenté l'achat du vote de 150 000 personnes», un chiffre conséquent quant on considère l'écart qui a séparé les deux camps, à peine une douzaine de milliers de votes en tout.
La Géorgie pendant ce temps, elle aussi ébranlée par l'invasion de l'Ukraine, se livrait au même combat lors de sa campagne législative, même si la question de l'Europe n'a pas été posée aussi directement. Le vote avait lieu quelques mois après des mouvements de protestation contre la loi d'ingérence au goût très russe de l'oligarque influent Bidzina Ivanishvili. Ce dernier laissait entendre qu'un vote contre le parti qu'il a fondé, le Rêve géorgien, risquait la guerre dans ce pays déjà grignoté par son voisin russe, un peu à la manière de l'Ukraine.
Moldavie et Géorgie faisaient partie de l'URSS et abritent de fortes minoritiés russes sur des terres échappant paefois au contrôle du gouvernement central. Le parti au pouvoir fut donné vainqueur mais non sans la contestation de l'opposition qui dénonçait des "élections volées" et un "coup d'état constitutionnel" dans un pays où l'appui pour l'Europe est généralisé. Une enquête sur la "falsification présumée" du vote a été lancée.
Sandu pendant ce temps préparait déjà la ronde suivante en Moldavie, plus personnelle puisqu'elle devait lutter contre le candidat pro-russe Alexandru Stoianoglo au second tour de la présidentielle, quelques mois avant les législatives de l’été 2025, toutes sans aucun doute disputées sous influence. Celle-ci semblait avoir gagné son pari malgré une campagne marquée par plusieurs menaces.
S'il y a un pays de l'ancien bloc soviétique où les élections ne menaçaient pas de changer la donne il s'agit bien de la Lituanie, qui malgré son changement de cap - le pouvoir passant de la droite à la gauche - maintient son soutien indéfectible pour Kiev. Mais l'influence russe n'y a pas moins été ressentie.
TRUMP RE-ELECTED
Perhaps it was too much to change horse in mid-stream, perhaps the disgruntlement of Americans reeling from high prices and a sense of missing out on economic opportunities despite the generally performing economy, was too great. Maybe it was the thirst for change or perhaps America is still not ready for a female president.
In the end it didn't matter that Donald Trump had become a convicted felon, conducted a campaign high on hyperbole and merchandising and low on policy details, toyed with being a dictator on day 1 or using the army to crush dissent by political opponents, even executing them, praised Hitler, used profanity and made lewd remarks during rallies, slammed migrants for bringing in bad genes and vowed to launch mass deportations, all while suggesting Americans may no longer need to vote again after Nov. 5.
The 45th US president returned to the White House with a vengeance, something that we could be mistaken for not taking literally. Not only was he projected winner on election night scoring some 291 electors, whereas some were expecting a call days away, fearing long legal battles, but he also secured the popular vote and looked to win both houses to carry out his mandate in force, a Supreme Court already tucked into his corner, its abortion ruling not enough of a catalyst to galvanize the masses against the Republican candidate.
Those court cases against Trump would for the most part be dropped and the opposition left reeling after the new hopes that followed Kamala Harris' rise to headline the Democratic ticket, replacing an underperforming and weakened Joe Biden. The Democratic coalition failed to score where it mattered and in fact was less successful than Biden four years ago, while Trump bettered his own numbers, scoring "bigly" among Latinos, whom he had disparaged so often in the past. At least the clear result prevented the unpalatable post-election scenarios of 2020 or 2000 and voting day, despite the occasional bomb threats, was largely spared major disruptions.
The traditionally long campaign had been the most eventful in recent history, marked by a change of candidate in one camp and two assassination attempts in the other, and targeted by a campaign of influence from abroad targeting both camps. World leaders who had hoped not to relive the tensions of Trump's previous presidency, the threats to NATO, trade renegotiations and anti-immigrant policies, were left putting on a crooked smile, congratulating him for winning four more years, a rare feat after the interruption of the Biden years too many Americans decided were just not good enough to leave the Democrats in power.
Now they had to brace for measures at a critical junction in big power history, with wars in Ukraine and the Middle-East, disputes the president-elect promised to settle soon into his administration, for bad or for worse. They had to brace for possible new trade tariffs, especially Three Amigo partner Mexico, which Trump said would face massive tariffs if it could not prevent migrants from heading to the US border, despite its recent efforts on the issue. How, some wondered abroad as well as in many parts of the US who had been so anxiously anticipating the results, could n.45 be given another chance?
Perhaps it was a case of, in the words of a bumbling predecessor: "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me (twice)... you're can't get fooled again." No amount of celebrity power, Taylor Swift be damned, were a match of Elon Musk it seemed, or able to prevent a stunning political comeback, sweeping most of the battleground states. "We achieved the most incredible political thing," Trump declared in his victory speech. "This will forever be remembered as the day the American people regained control of their country," vowing to close the border among other measures he now faces less opposition to carry out than eight years ago, and this time, perhaps, with a mind set on revenge. Or was this much for show?
The vitriol certainly seemed real, as well as plans to purge the civil service so it is filled with loyalists and yes men. This all seemed far removed from Kamala's hopes to "end the drama" in Washington. Unlike Trump four years ago, Harris, conceded the election hours after her rival was projected winner and promised a smooth and peaceful transition.
"The outcome of this election is not what we wanted, not what we fought for, not what we voted for, but hear me when I say, the light of America's promise will always burn bright as long as we never give up and as long as we keep fighting," she said before tearful supporters. "While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign," While supporters hoped neck and neck polls during the campaign would hatch a secretive pro-Kamala female vote, it was the Trump support which defied expectations.
Despite a promising start, Harris failed to close the deal or distance herself enough from her unpopular president, observers say. "After a remarkable start to her campaign, Harris failed to close the deal rhetorically. In an unfortunate echo of Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016, Harris spent far too much time trying to argue that Trump was unfit for the presidency and too little time delivering a coherent message about why she would be better," argued commentator Michael Hirsh in Foreign Policy. "Despite overpowering Trump in their only debate on Sept. 10 and raising more than $1 billion in donations in just three months—a new record—Harris often floundered when challenged to deliver a convincing summary of her agenda on critical issues such as the economy and immigration." Trump's election may have sent shock waves in a number of circles, it also sent stocks soaring.
IN NEED OF A FIX
After torrential rains provoking devastating floods from Eastern Spain to the Balkans in Europe as well as parts of Africa, the Americas and Asia, leaders at COP 29 were under no illusion they had to redouble their efforts to fight climate change after another record-setting year.
Even the Taleban, although not recognized by all participants, found the issue pressing enough to send representatives to a climate conference for the first time, seeking help developing mitigation and adaptation efforts. According to experts, this is no surprise as Afghanistan is particularly vulnerable to global warming. "Climate change has resulted in higher temperatures, which reduce water sources and cause droughts," told AP Hayatullah Mashwani of Kabul University. "The reduction in water availa-bility and frequent droughts pose severe threats to agriculture, leading to food insecurity and challenges to livelihoods."
According to Save the Children the country is ranked the sixth most vulnerable country in the world with 25 of 34 provinces facing severe droughts. Nearby Pakistan was notably struck by devastating floods and extreme heat this year, hardly recovering from similar events two years ago. The repetition of such disasters and their worsening intensity is having an impact on children's mental health according to a study by the World Economic Forum this summer.
"The economic and physical health impacts of climate change are clear, Pakistan’s population is also experiencing the often overlooked mental health ramifications," the report stated. "The devastating fallout from the floods and extreme heat have stoked a sense of climate anxiety or 'eco-anxiety' in locals, a term popularly used to convey despairing sentiments around the climate crisis."
In Africa extreme heat has also made it unbearable to attend class for some children, hampering education for future generations, one that is so crucial to ensure the continent's future develop-ment and posperity. While expectations were high at the conference, some looked on with unease at the incoming US administration, more likely to abandon green measures while espousing drilling policies. The current White House meanwhile tried to reassure participants the fight against the climate crisis is bigger than any election result, but not everyone is convinced.
The US has been battered by hurricanes, tornadoes and flooding this season and wildfires scorched parts of California and New York state as the conference was starting. But a number of world leaders in fact decided to give the summit a miss, notably those of top polluters including the US, India and China. But Britain's new prime minister said he was looking forward to meeting new ambitious targets to tackle climate change. "Acts on climate now is the route towards economic growth, energy security, better jobs, and national security in the long term to deliver on the Paris agreement," he said.
The choice of venue for COP29 once more raised some eyebrows. Baku, like Dubai last year, belongs to a major oil power, sparking criticism the outcome would yield little despite rising emergencies on every continent. In fact Azerbaijani officials were using the gathering to discuss potential oil and gas deals according to the BBC, quite remote from the stated goal of negotiating compensation for impacts of climate change to poorer countries. Meanwhile oil company Shell won an appeal against a landmark ruling that required it to accelerate carbon reduction efforts. Former US vice-president and longtime climate campaigner Al Gore said the yearly gathering had to be reformed.
"I think it's absurd to have, for example, what we had last year with the CEO of one of the dirtiest oil companies on the planet serving as the president of the COP," he told EuroNews. "It's a direct conflict of interest," calling this year's host "in synch with this country's reliance on fossil fuels." He proposed that the UN's secretary general pick the venue of future summits and said relying on technology to solve the climate crisis only played into the hands of oil and gas interests, singling out carbon capture and storage meant to store away CO2 underground.
"They've been proven to be completely ridiculous and totally ineffective," he said. "Of course the fossil fuel companies want to pretend that that's the solution - anything other than reducing the amount of fossil fuels that are burned or reducing their markets." Yet, as the Economist pointed out, technology remains and "has always been a vital part of the fight to regain control over the climate" and renewables get cheaper every year.
But Gore is hardly the sole critic of the summit. More than 20 experts signed a letter saying the COP wasn't working and in need an overhaul. COP's "current structure simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale, which is essential to ensure a safe climate landing for humanity," they wrote.
UN NOUVEAU MODÈLE?
L'aveu d'une défaite cinglante, la félicitation du nouveau vainqueur et la promesse d'une transition pacifique, voilà tous les éléments d'une conclusion électorate saine, signes de stabilité démocratique. Mais alors que le monde avait les yeux rivés sur l'élection américaine plusieurs ont raté la transition exemplaire au Botswana, exemple pour le continent africain mais pour le reste de la planête également.
L'élection du mois dernier était d'autant plus notable qu'elle confirmait l'alternance pour la première fois après 60 ans d'indépendance. A l'époque Duma Boko, un avocat quinquagénaire des droits humains éduqué à Harvard, n'était pas encore au monde.
En remportant 31 des 60 sièges sa coalition de gauche Umbrella for Democratic Change délogeait pour la première fois le parti au pouvoir depuis la rupture avec la couronne britannique. Et comment a réagi le dirigeant sortant Mokgweetsi Masisi? Presque avec enthousiasme: «Je veux féliciter l’opposition pour sa victoire. Nous avons eu tout faux aux yeux du peuple,» dit-il en s'engageant à faciliter la transition.
« Nous sommes tout à fait heureux de nous retirer pour devenir une opposition loyale qui demande des comptes au gouver-nement».
Il faut dire que l'état de l'économie, qui dépend notamment du diamant et du tourisme, et la corruption ont finalement eu raison du Parti démocratique du Botswana, mais le résultat n'a pas moins causé la surprise. Le signal était-il envoyé au voisin sud-africain dont le gouvernement au pouvoir depuis la fin de l'apartheid maintient sa place malgré sa cote de popularité glissante? Ce signal pourrait aussi bien traverser l'océan pour effectuer un rappel à l'administration entrante à Washington.
Reconnaissant l'«immense responsabilité» qui lui a été confiée avec «humilité », Boko a salué la «transition démocratique réussie, pacifique et ordonnée» de ce petit pays du sud du continent de 2,6 million d'âmes regroupant la plus importante population d’éléphants au monde.
Le chômage (27 %), notamment chez les jeunes, figurait au haut des préoccupations dans ce pays qui, comme son voisin, connait d'importantes inégalités. Mais la démocratie elle, se porte plutôt bien. Alors que la baisse de popularité du parti au pouvoir avait été ressentie depuis plusieurs années, sa chute a surpris plusieurs observateurs.
Un telle « probabilité semblait très faible», selon l’économiste Keith Jefferies, se livrant à l'AFP. On aurait ainsi assisté à « un raz-de-marée d’électeurs qui ont changé d’allégeance ». Une bouffée de fraicheur alors que le monde tombe dans une humeur plutôt sombre après l'éclat américain et la montée des extrémismes et des puissances autoritaires. Le salut viendrait-il de ce coin Afrique?
DEFENDING DEMOCRACIES
As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, the defenders urge supporters and suppliers not to abandon them, reiterating their struggle is the free world's, and democracy's battle against the darkness of authori-tarianism. Sadly, in a year of continuing war in Eastern Europe and conflict in the Middle East, an increasing share of the world is living under some form of authoritarianism according to both Freedom House and this year' Economist Democracy Index.
For the latter, this means just under 40%, while barely 45% of the planet lives under some form of democracy, and this includes only 7.8% of some 167 surveyed countries that are full democracies. The last year has brought the global democracy index further down, in fact to its lowest level since it was created in 2006, "suggesting authori-tarian regimes are becoming more entrenched and hybrid regimes are struggling to democratise."
The biggest damage, by this account, has been in the Middle East and North Africa, with the flare-ups in Sudan and Gaza, certainly, but also in the Caribbean and Latin America, in regions consumed by internal wars of sorts with gangs and criminality. This ensured El Salvador's increasingly autocratic leadership a sure win in this year's elections, with others looking to emulate Bukele's strong-armed formula to tame drug gangs.
The punishing method, criticized by human rights groups, has certainly dipped the level of violence in what was one of the world's most terrifying countries, but not without weakening further the state of democracy there. "His total control of government institutions means that opposition parties have little chance of challenging his re-election," the Economist Intelligence Unit's report notes. "Political reforms passed in June to reduce the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly and the number of municipalities will further constrain the chances of opposition parties to gain power," while media freedoms come under attack.
The Freedom House report downgraded Ecuador from free to partly free due to the rising gang-related violence. In that annual report political rights and civil liberties were down in 52 countries and only 21 countries improved their situation. But as co-author Yana Gorokhovskaia notes: "Even if you look at it region by region, usually we are able to say that one is an outlier, but every single region registered a decline.
The deterioration is pretty widespread." The report denounced efforts by incumbents "to control electoral competition, hinder their political opponents or prevent them from taking power" in countries including Cambodia, Turkey and Zimbabwe and -- unsuccessfully -- in Guatemala and Poland." There were however some bright spots as Thailand went from not free to partly free after relatively competitive elections, even if the regime prevented a young progressive whose party won the most seats from becoming prime minister.
"This isn't, I would say, a full-scale victory for democracy or freedom and Thailand," nuanced Gorokhovskaia. The biggest improvement? Tiny Fiji after 2022 elections which ousted longtime ruler Frank Bainimarama, who had taken over in a coup in 2006. Since then Freedom House has noted marked progress including reduced censorship and laws to improve women's participation.
ÉCLAIRCIR LE MYSTÈRE
Du haut de l'aéronef qui se dirige vers Malaga la vue a les délices d'une destination de choix. La mer, les yachts étincelants, une ville vibrante et grouillante de trésors andalous, et une crête de montagnes couronnée d'éoliennes pour alimenter toutes ces surprises. Mais ces derniers temps, tel Don Quichotte s'élançant vers ces géants modernes, le doute s'installe sur le virage vert qui a fait de l'Espagne, et son sud en particulier, un modèle pour le continent et cette planête surchauffée.
La panne générale qui a frappé l'Espagne et le Portugal en avril a remis en cause la transition énergétique qui a vu l'état espagnol délaisser les fossiles pour le renouvelable. Après l'arrivée d'une administration américaine pro-pétrole, le retrait des grandes banques des objectifs verts, et le rejet de l'électrique sur roues de Tesla, c'est une orientation phare du 21e siècle qui est remise en cause.
Ce virage vert a-t-il causé la panne qui a plongé des millions de citoyens dans le noir, immobilisant le réseau des transports en commun peu de temps après le jour de cette terre qu'il doit sauver, laissant le gasole voler au secours des citoyens laissés à leur sort? Alors que les autorités se bornent à dire qu'il n'en était pas la cause, celle-ci n'est toujours pas encore clairement établie.
Ca commence à faire beaucoup au long de cette côte déjà frappée par les inondations meurtrières de décembre à Valence, modèle environnemental décoré, où certains avaient, à tort ou à raison, pointé du doigt le virage vert du centre de la ville... possiblement au détriment de banlieues plus durement frappées par le désastre.
Les accusations, qui fusent des partis de l'opposition en Espagne seraient plus faciles à ignorer si un avertissement n'avait pas été émis dans un rapport soulignant le risque de ce genre de dénouement. La maison mère du gestionnaire du réseau électrique avait mis en garde "la forte pénétration de la production renouvelable sans les capacités techniques nécessaires à un comportement adéquat face aux perturbations."
Voilà qui pouvait éventuel-lement "provoquer des coupures de production... allant jusqu'à entrainer un deséquilibre entre la production et la demande, ce qui affecterait significativement l'approvi-sionnement en électricité." Une demande déjà taxée alors qu'on entre dans la période chaude. L'an dernier près de 40% de l'électricité était redevable à l'éolien ou au solaire, un bond ces dernières années, doublant ce que l'on pouvait observer la décennie précédente, et le double du nucléaire.
Ce secteur est en chute puisqu'il doit disparaitre d'ici dix ans en Espagne. Pourtant la présidente du gestionnaire, Beatriz Corredor, maintient que "relier l'incident si grâve à une pénétration des renouvelables n'est pas vrai, ce n'est pas correct." Cette semaine encore le gouvernement écartait les défaillances de couverture, de réserve ou d'infrastructure.
Mais sans véritable explication de l'incident, qui ne serait pas lié à un cas exceptionnel de cyberattaque non plus, la speculation va bon train et fourbit des armes aux sceptiques. La disparition de 15 gigawatts en quelques secondes lors de la panne pourrait être reliée à une chaine d'incidents, affectant un site de production solaire. Rien pour rassurer les sceptiques après la plus importante panne du genre dans l'histoire du réseau électrique européeen.
THE FIGHT WITHOUT END
There was a sense of suffocating deja vu as military planes unloaded evacuees from Northern regions of Canada while the smoke of wildfires billowed all the way to the southern US and even Europe. Demand for water bombers skyrocketed while calls increased for a dedicated wildfire fighting force across the country of over nine million square kilometres where all provinces save the smallest one are already dealing with scorched forests and destroyed homes early in the season.
Provinces struggled to accommodate a new flow of refugees, the growing victims of the climate, including Native communities which had deplored lack of resources to fight the fires, and even lack of water, any water, potable or not, able to help douse the flames. After a winter season during which Canada had sent water bombers fight the flames in California, US and other foreign fire fighters were assisting in what is becoming an annual battle, often sadly futile, to save isolated communities.
But some of them, like Flin Flon, Manitoba, were rather large, sparking fears of a repeat of recent disasters in Fort Mac and Jasper, still shadows of their former selves as the Great White North became engulfed in another season of charred forests and structures, from British Columbia to Newfoundland. With most evacuees coming from northern regions of Western Canada, hotels quickly filled up in Manitoba and Alberta, forcing some evacuees to be sent as far as Niagara Falls, leaving them to wake up, ironically, to views of a torrent of water. There was some reluctance to come this far away from their homes, but with the exhaustion and stress of the experience, some evacuees started regaining their senses and sanity after their arrival, according to evacuation coordinator Sheena Garrick.
"As soon as they started arriving here they're at ease. They're comfortable, they're well rested, they're fed." Some of these communities, such as Cornwall, had earlier served to house asylum seekers from abroad desperate for housing after their arrival in Canada. Many wildfire evacuees had to drive hours on isolated roads licked by flames to make it to safety only to find cramped cots and few resources in already overrun regions of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Premier Wab Kinew defended evacuation efforts sending some far away from home.
"We want everyone to come home when it is safe for them to do so," he told CBC, pointing out evacuees from Northern Ontario had also gone to Manitoba for safety earlier in what is an increasingly early wildfire season. "So I think all of us are just trying to respond to this situation," but making it harder this time across the country is there are fires "everywhere at once." Kinew wasn't just struggling to house and support evacuees, he also had a number of firefights on his hands and the lack of water bombers isn't something that could domestically be changed any time soon.
The province has put down $80 million on three new water bombers that will probably not be delivered before 2031. "We're in this challenge having to respond during an emergency situation by pulling pieces that we have at our disposal." The company now building the water scoopers made famous the world over is based out of Calgary with orders primarily going to the international market, ironically, as foreign fire fighters come into Canada to support the fight. Ontario has also placed orders for the bombers. Amid so many international priorities and the current trade war, fire chiefs have renewed calls for a genuine national strategy to deal with what are reoccurring and multiplying natural disasters. In the mean time small specialized search and rescue teams have been key helping people getting out of areas only accessible by air.
"The smoke was so thick at times , it was black inside the helicopter" told CTV Bryan Preston of Manitoba Search and Rescue. He is part of Task Force 4, one of only six heavy urban rescue task forces of the sort in the country, skilled for large scale collapse structure rescues. Communication has been an issue in remote communities, making the assistance of the Canadian Armed Forces critical. While some evacuees were able to return home in some regions of Alberta, other regions of the province faced new evacuation orders. The county of Grande Prairie issued an evacuation order as the wildfire there crossed into BC.
New emergencies also developed in Squamish and Northwest Ontario's Sandy Lake Nation. Some Native communities expressed concern about the lack of assets to fight the flames. In some instances, they said, the smoke was too heavy to operate water bombers, and the fires had to be mainly battled on the ground. But lack of equipment such as hoses impeded the fight. Lack of resources or potable - sometimes any - water, is not a new problem in the North. Earlier this year the Quebec Native community of Puvirnituq lost all water after the rupture of a main line, hampering efforts to put out a house fire.
The wildfires were doing more than disrupting communities, they were destroying historical artifacts in Native communities, such as a trading post in La Ronge, Sask. In that province two people were charged with starting fires and officials were investigating the suspicious nature of other fires. The reoccurring wildfires and intensity this early in the season is renewing calls for Canada to create an agency the current US administration has ironically been cutting at home, a Canadian version of FEMA to coordinate response to natural disasters. “There needs to be something in place so that when we have fires throughout Canada, we have the ability to react quickly and move resources where they are required,” said MP Randy Hoback. And projections for the summer, and future summers, are of warmer than usual temperatures.
RAS-LE-BOL
Après cinq mois de Trump, des millions d'Américains, manifestant dans de nombreuses villes du pays contre l'enfant roi étaient à se demander si le rythme effréné des crises et des bouleversements allait durer toute la longueur du second mandat du président. Après les coupures budgétaires sauvages, la guerre tarifaire et les rapts de déportations, tous multipliant les cas présentés devant les tribunaux, les éclats lors des manifestations à Los Angeles, puis ailleurs au pays, ont forcé la sortie hautement publique de l'homme présenté comme potentiel candidat à la présidence dans trois ans à un moment où l'opposition est encore sous le choc.
Après des jours d'escarmouches sous forme d'interviews télévisés et de déclarations sur les médias sociaux, le gouverneur californien Gavin Newsom s'emparait des ondes pour condamner l'immixion fédérale dans la gestion des manifestations de son état, notamment l'envoi de troupes militaires, dans une intervention télévisée qui allait bien au-delà de la crise évoluant sous son nez et qui avait toutes les allures d'un lancement de campagne.
"Il est grand temps de se tenir debout" contre Trump, lança-t-il, d'adressant pendant près de neuf minutes non seulement aux Californiens ou citoyens de la mégalopole de l'ouest, mais au peuple américain tout entier, avec un texte intitulé "la démocratie à la croisée des chemins". "Trump ne protège pas les communautés, il les traumatise, fustige l'homme de 57 ans. Les régimes autoritaires débutent en ciblant les personnes les moins aptes à se défendre, mais ils n'arrêtent pas là."
Il n'hésite pas de souligner que Trump ne s'oppose pas vraiment à la violence, soulignant ses encouragements lorsque ses supporters ont pris d'assaut le Capitole à Washington en janvier 2021. "Je veux que tout le monde prenne le temps de réfléchir à ce moment périlleux," ajoute Newsom, dénonçant "un président qui ne veut être limité pas aucune loi ou constitution," et s'acharne sur les traditions américaines en renvoyant les chiens de garde du gouvernment, déclarant la guerre aux "sciences et à la connaissance elle-même", en s'attaquant aux médias, tout en retirant le financement des universités, en visant le judiciaire qui représente sa seule entrave, et en faisant appel à l'arrestation d'un gouverneur, en l'occurence lui-même "pour la seule raison - reprenant ses propres mots - qu'il a été élu." Le défilé militaire prévu le jour de l'anniversaire de Trump est de la trempe "des dictateurs déchus du passé," ajoute-t-il.
En peu de temps les manifestations s'étendent dans plusieurs villes du pays, de New York à San Francisco en passant par le Texas, où le gouverneur n'hésite pas à faire appel à la garde nationale, étant de la même couleur que le président. Or ces gestes militaires, dont le symbole a été le plus fort lors du défilé marquant le 250e anniversaire des forces armées , ne font que gonfler la grogne, qui augmente et rappelle les manifestations qui avaient accueilli les interdictions de séjour de voyageurs de pays musulmans aux premières heures du mandat précédent.
Or perdu dans ce fracas: le retour de nouvelles interdictions touchant une douzaine de pays, terres des demandeurs d'asile les plus désespérés, d'Afghanistan, où tant d'interprètes avaient rendu les missions des GIs possibles, en Haïti, pays plongé dans la crise dont les ressortissants avaient fait l'objet de toutes les insultes. La statue de la liberté ne pouvait que pleurer sur son pédestal. Pas étonnant qu'un politicien français ait fait appel à son retour en France. Cette semaine c'était à l'ancien président Obama de faire une rare sortie, avec un appel au sacrifice de la résistance alors que le climat politique prend aux Etats-Unis de plus en plus l'allure d'une "autocratie".
LOSING SUPPORT
As Gaza recovered from the latest devastating Israeli bombing run and the IDF readied to expand military operations, some of the Jewish state's allies signalled a dramatic shift in their stance on the ongoing conflict, stop the offensive or face sanctions they warned. It was unheard of language from France, the UK and Canada, staunch supporters of Israel's right to exist and defend itself but determined to drive the message that its military actions had become disproportionate.
The mood has been darkening between Israel and its allies. Quickly followed Britain's decision to bring home its ambassador and suspending trade talks with Israel. The EU's foreign policy chief also asked for a review of EU-Israel agreements governing political and economic ties. Ireland meanwhile drafted a bill to ban the import of goods from Israeli settlements considered illegal under international law. This followed the International Court of Justice's statement the occupation of the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip was illegal.
But all this hardly deterred Israel from announcing its largest expansion in the West Bank in decades, with plans to develop 22 settlements. The region it seemed was being plunged decades into the past. Israelis polled were divided on the expansion of military operations that have devastated Palestinian lands and thrown the region into chaos. The humanitarian situation in the strip once home to 2 million people has become beyond dire. The UN warned some 48,000 children were facing immediate threats to their lives as conditions worsened amid an Israeli blockade, and the world body and others condemned the organization of aid delivery by a controversial US-Israeli organization after some were killed and dozens were hurt when a crowd of starving citizens overwhelmed a distribution centre.
More recently dozens were killed trying to reach the hub. Benjamin Netanyahu said there would be improvements in the distribution but stressed that Hamas was being denied the ability to use humanitarian aid as a weapon. Some NGOs said the new arrangement wasn't feasible. "Forcing a population to travel 25 kilometres to collect a food parcel under fire, are those the humanitarian conditions we want in Gaza?" questioned Antoine Renard of the World Food Programme. International Criminal Court prosecutors urged judges to reject a request by Israel to scrap arrest warrants targeting Netanyahu and his former defense minister saying there was "a reason to believe" they used "starvation as a method of warfare" by limiting humanitarian aid and targeting civilians in Gaza.
In recent days continued strikes on the territory killed dozens, including 55 on the day Netanyahu called the letter by the three countries a "huge prize" for Hamas. Days later Israel issued a travel advisory warning its citizens of growing threats for terrorist elements" in Canada. The Israeli leader reiterated his government would continue the offensive until the threat of Hamas is eradicated, vowing to take control of the strip it once relinquished. Israel also reiterated its demand for the release of the remaining hostages captured in the October 2022 attack which triggered its armed response.
But in addition to striking Gaza Israel has also turned its sights on the West Bank, where relations were only complicated when a diplomatic incident ensued after IDF troops fired warning shots near foreign officials visiting Jenin's refugee camp. Paris soon summoned its Israeli ambassador as condemnation rose from a number of European capitals and Ottawa, as four of the diplomats were Canadian. Prime Minister Mark Carney called the incident "totally unacceptable" among "many things totally unacceptable going on in the region." Israel further asserted its authority in the West Bank when Arab ministers were prevented from gathering in Ramallah for a meeting on the recognition of a Palestinian state.
The US did not echo the condemnation of the diplomatic incident or the three G7 countries' statement, but some noted possible distancing by president Donald Trump during his visit to the Middle East, which did not include a stop in Israel. The continuing war, which passed its 600th day, loomed behind violent incidents overseas as well after a Palestinian militant killed two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington. Netanyahu ordered Israeli missions around the world to ramp up security after the incident. The suspect was held in custody after reportedly yelling "Free Palestine" following the attack. “We are witness to the terrible cost of the antisemitism and wild incitement against the State of Israel,” Netanyahu said in a statement.
Days later police arrested a US citizens who plotted to attack the US embassy in Tel Aviv with Molotov cocktails and who according to reports threatened the life of the US president. Less than a week after the DC incident, a man was arrested on terror charges in Colorado after attacking participants of a protest calling for the release of the war's hostages. Protests have been rising from within Israel as well about the decision to re-occupy Gaza, which had been relinquished in 2005.
Amid the street demonstrations in Israeli cities former prime minister Ehud Olmert said "what we are doing in Gaza is close to being a war crime." Former military official and current political leader Yair Golan warned "Israel will become a pariah state, as South Africa has been, if we do not conduct ourselves as a sane state. A sane country does not wage war against civilians, does not kill babies as a pastime, and does not engage in mass population displacement.” Israel certainly seemed to become a growing stranger among its traditional allies.
VOTES A RÉPÉTITION
Ces élections a répétition, ce cauchemar de gouver-nements minoritaires éphémères et cette instabilité, c'est un portrait politique que le sud européen connait bien, mais il ne s'agit plus des boufonneries de la botte méditerranéenne mais d'un pays plutôt orienté sur le large atlantique.
En effet le Portugal a de nouveau été appelé aux urnes fin mai, son troisième scrutin national en autant d'années, et le résultat n'a pas vraiment changé la donne. Comme l'an dernier l’Alliance démocratique de centre droite l'a emporté mais sans laisser au premier ministre Luis Montenegro les sièges nécessaires afin d'obtenir la majorité malgré le gain de quelques sièges. Il fit par conséquent appel à la «responsabilité» des autres partis et à leur «sens de l’État» afin de le «laisser travailler».
Mais l'heure est grâve au pays 50 ans après les premières élections démocratiques qui ont suivi la dictature. C'est le fractionnement du vote ces dernières années qui rend la majorité si difficile à obtenir, notamment en raison de la montée de l'extrême droite, arrivée deuxième avec 22% des voix et remportant notamment deux des quatre circonscriptions de 'étranger. Mais l'avocat de 52 ans reporté au pouvoir refuse encore et toujours de gouverner avec les extrêmes du Chega, qui signifie "assez".
Il espérait plutôt obtenir le soutien de l'initiative libérale, qui n'a obtenu que 5% des voix. Pari perdu, mais c'est la gauche qui a été la grande perdante, le parti socialiste, avec 22% des votes, arrivant troisième avec deux sièges de moins que les 60 d'André Ventura, un ancien commentateur de football.
Le secrétaire général du PS Pedro Nuno Santos, dont le parti a perdu presque la moitié de ses sièges en trois ans, a rendu sa démission tandis que Ventura a déclaré haut et fort «la fin d’un système politique vieux de 50 ans où l’alternance n’était pas possible». Il s'agit en effet, depuis la révolution des oeillets, de la première fois que centre gauche et centre droit ne disposent plus de la majorité des deux tiers.
L'ancien ministre socialiste de la défense António Vitorino estime qu'a eu lieu au Portugal une « altération structurelle du système » avec cette élection qui pour d'autres a des allures de tremblement de terre. Pour Ventura l'élection marque «un changement profond du système politique portu-guais».
On est loin des débuts de ce parti qui déclarait vouloir "sauver le Portugal" en 2019, lorsqu'il n'a remporté qu'un siège. Montenegro a ignoré les appels du Chega de se plonger dans des réformes constitutionnelles, préférant se concentrer sur l'économique, les services publics et la santé. Pour l'heure, Ventura s'engage à ne pas immédiatement tenter de faire tomber le gouvernement, ce qui serait s'attirer la foudre d'un public las de l'appel aux urnes.
Les élections de mai ont été déclenchées à la suite d'un vote de confiance à propos des épineuses questions d'une commission parlementaire étudiant à la loupe les activités d'une société de conseil enregistrée chez Montenegro au nom de ses enfants. Celui-ci a rejetté les accusations de "mêler politique et affaires".
CORDON SANITAIRE
Avec cette montée des extrêmes trumpistes au Portugal et en Roumanie et le nouveau siège du parti Reform UK de Nigel Farage en Grande-bretagne, l'euroscepticisme semblait avoir le vent dans les voiles sur le vieux continent cinq ans après le choc du Brexit.
Quelques mois après l'annulation du vote présidentiel qui avait donné un inconnu d'extrême droite vainqueur à Bucarest, les électeurs semblaient favoriser George Simion dans les sondages, un jeune candidat d'extrême droite claironnant haut et fort "Make Romania Great Again" qui a promis de sabrer les soutiens à l'Ukraine. Mais pourtant le soir du vote, c'est le centriste pro-européen Nicusor Dan, maire de Bucarest, qui a remporté la présidentielle avec 54% des voix, faisant oublier ses chiffres médiocres du premier tour.
"Les élections d'aujourd'hui ont vu la victoire d'une communauté de Roumains qui souhaitent un changement profond en Roumanie, déclare l'homme de 55 ans le soir du vote. Une communauté qui veut que les institutions de l'état fonctionnent, une commu-nauté qui veut réduire la corruption, une communauté qui veut un environnement économique prospère pour les Roumains... une société de dialogue et non une société de haine."
Malgré des résultats concluants, Simion a sorti la carte trumpiste en revendiquant sa propre victoire le soir du vote tout en parlant d'un décompte parallèle de son parti qui dénicherait "toute fraude potentielle". En fin de compte il fit appel à l'annulation du vote par la cour constitutionnelle. Cette dernière cependant valida l'élection de Dan. Le scrutin de l'automne avait été annulé par le haut tribunal pour cause d'ingérence russe.
Simion insinua que la France et la Moldavie en avaient fait autant lors du dernier vote. Ce dernier s'était engagé à sabrer l'appui à l'Ukraine, risquant de mettre le pays de 19 millions d'habitants dans le camp de Viktor Orban. Soulagement à Kiev et Bruxelles, qui a accueilli un résultat qui a "choisi la promesse d'une Roumanie ouverte et prospère dans une Europe forte."
L'Union a également plutôt bien accueilli le résultat de première ronde de l'élection polonaise qui mettait en tête le candidat pro-européen Rafal Trzaskowski avec 31% des intentions de vote, même s'il ne devançait le nationaliste Karol Nawrocki que par un seul point et que la leçon du vote roumain rappellait que le premier tour n'est pas toujours le reflet du résultat final. D'autant plus que les candidats de la droite dure ont plutôt bien fait.
Alors que Nawrocki, soutenu par le parti Droit et Justice (PiS, conservateur) du président sortant, a obtenu près de 30% des suffrages, le député libertarien Slawomir Mentzen et l’eurodéputé antisémite Grzegorz Braun ont également obtenu ensemble près de 22 % des voix. Le cordon sanitaire contre les extrêmes tiendrait-t-il longtemps?
Le soir du second tour la lutte restait serrée, Trzaskowski se déclarant vainqueur en un premier temps, mais les chiffres finaux donnèrent l'élection à son opposant, qui avec son véto pourra tenir le premier ministre Donald Tusk en échec au long des prochains mois. Mais certains craignent que l'animosité entre les deux partis ne pousse les électeurs vers les partis extrémistes dans l'avenir.
DEPORTEES INC.
What do Papua New Guinea, Rwanda and El Salvador - sharing no borders and nowhere near each other - have in common? A will to take in other countries' deportees for money, a debate which has upset many human rights advocates, especially when the United Kingdom. considered deporting some of its unwanted guests to the African nation. In 2023 however Britain's Supreme Court ruled the agreement unconstitutional.
The incoming Labour govern-ment slammed the deal as a terrible waste of taxpayer funds after nearly 300 million pounds were paid to Kigali for, in the end, zero flights to Rwanda. That didn't stop the practice elsewhere and certainly didn't discourage the U.S., with the White House's emphasis on deportations, from reaching deals with El Salvador and other countries in what is becoming a global industry of forced displacements. The U.S. also has an agreement with Guatemala, and Mexico usually houses asylum seekers waiting for their hearings in the U.S.
More recently Kosovo, a staunch US ally which largely owes its independence to Washington, announced it too would welcome deportees from the U.S. Now that the U.S. Supreme Court has allowed deportations to third countries, Washington is asking dozens of countries to take them in, including some at war or who commit torture. What the U.S. is doing isn't new. At the other end of the world Australia had set up the Manus island detention centre in Papua New Guinea for years to detain asylum seekers intercepted on the high seas, drawing global condemnation after reports of violence and lack of health services and sanitation surfaced. The detention centre closed in 2016 after a ruling from Australia's high court, but other facilities were built on the same island, housing many of the same detainees.
A decade ago Israel deported some African asylum seekers to Rwanda and Uganda under controversial secret agreements. Denmark, which has toughened its stance on immigration, also for some time considered a similar deal with Rwanda. It later also considered outsourcing prisoners to Kosovo in a 200M euro controversial deal which some consider a possible model for Europe. Italy which receives a large number of migrants annually seeking to travel from North Africa to Europe, recently started sending asylum seekers awaiting processing to a facility in Albania.
The first case became an expensive operation however after a citizen of Bangladesh was sent to the Gjader facility in northern Albania only to be later returned to Italy before being flown back to Bangladesh, showing the costs associated with these enterprises. Sometimes reaching deals to export deportees included arm twisting, the U.S. reportedly considering an extended travel ban for a number of countries unless they accept third country nationals.
The U.S. has exported its undesirables for years, highlighted by the controversy surrounding extraordinary rendition during the Bush years and the existence of Guantanamo Bay, a facility also being used by the current administration to house detainees. The base was the home of a number of terrorists, including 9-11 detainees. Of course the tradition of sending prisoners to foreign, even far flung lands, can be found throughout history, having, ironically, led to the development of Australia itself.
At roughly the same time France sent many of its prisoners to its colony in Guyana. Whether they are deported for hard crimes or simply seeking asylum, the treatment reserved for detainees can vary little. Rwanda has notably been accused of human rights abuses on its detainees, a treatment familiar to those sent to Manus island, shipped there by a country founded with the creation of a penal colony.
TIGHTENED BORDERS
Historic indeed was the agreement to remove border controls between Spain and Gibraltar in the south of the old continent. Not just because the British territory lies outside the European Union, but because trends have gone in the opposite direction across the continent lately, leading to tightened borders, new checks and controls, not fewer.
While countries recently marked the 30th anniversary of the borders-opening Schengen agreement in the Luxembourg village of the same name, it faces new challenges in the face of anti-terror measures and rising anti-immigration sentiment across the zone's 29 nations. Germany's interior minister was notably absent at the commemoration, his country having slapped new controls at the Polish border two years ago, impeding the traffic of the many Poles working in Germany.
Warsaw soon slapped its own controls, turning its attention West after having focused on the Belarus border to the East amid campaigns by Minsk to use migrants at a weapon. Now nearly a dozen countries conduct some sort of checks in the Schengen zone that introduced care-free cross-border driving for years. Among them France, which was one of the original five, but also Sweden, Italy, Austria and Belgium, whose immigration minister Anneleen Van Bossuyt recently declared: "Our message is clear, Belgium will not tolerate illegal immigration and immigration shopping by asylum seekers."
All this may be spreading some confusion as Romania and Bulgaria joined as new Schengen members earlier this year. Ten years after the wave of Syrian refugees which crossed continental borders heading north, in time wearing down the European welcome toward immigrants, terrorism and security are also being mentioned as reasons for raising the barriers once more. In 2016 a Tunisian national who had committed a terror attack against a Christmas market in Germany was only neutralized later in Italy after crossing four borders.
The authors of the Bataclan and Charlie Hebdo attacks had also sought refuge outside the country they had bloodied. A number of observers are now fearing the possible domino effect of recent decisions to tighten the borders. This week the German interior minister who had been absent for the commemoration invited European colleagues to a border summit where they agreed to tighten asylum rules.
The German chancellor has also called for a strategic alliance between his country, France and the UK on illegal immigration as well as defense. Earlier the UK and France reached a deal on a new pilot project whereby small illegal boat arrivals from France to the UK will be returned to their point of origin but "an equal number of migrants will be able to come to the UK from France through a new legal route – fully documented and subject to strict security checks."
The deal was to be further scrutinized by European authorities. Berlin says the agreement should be expanded with Germany. "We want to drastically reduce illegal migration in Europe," Chancellor Merz said. "We are on a good path, but we haven't reached the target yet." In May Germany started rejecting asylum seekers at the border, a decade after Angela Merkel had opened the country's borders.
LE COURAGE POLITIQUE
Perdu dans le brouhaha de l'attaque américaine contre les installations nucléaires en Iran, l'assassinat de la présidente de l'assemblée du Minnesota Melissa Hortman et de son mari a suscité de nouvelles inquiétudes au sein de la classe politique autant régionale que fédérale dans le pays du deuxième amendement. Mais les risques courus par les personnes qui consacrent leur vie à la vie publique traverse facilement les frontières à une époque où les divisions internes sont exacerbées par les médias sociaux et le manque de dialogue entre les extrêmes.
Quelques jours plus tard une explosion à l'extérieur du bureau de Browinn Ma, politicienne de Colombie-britannique, semait de nouvelles craintes chez les voisins du nord. Les femmes sont particulièrement ciblées, notamment au sein de sociétés où leur place dans la vie publique est limitée. Dans une entrevue sur la situation au Kenya, la juriste et recherchiste Nanjala Nyabola déclarait: "pour être femme politique il faut être superwoman" car celles-ci "sont incroyablement discriminées et attaquées" parfois même frappées ou forcées de se dévêtir en public! Vance Boelter est accusé du double meurtre au Minnesota ainsi que dans l'attaque d'un sénateur démocrate du même état et de sa femme.
Les deux couples avaient été visés chez eux, tandis que la déflagration au Canada avait lieu à l'extérieur du bureau de la ministre de l'infrastructure de la Colombie britannique à Vancouver Nord. Alors que les motifs politiques de cette attaque restaient à être clairement établis elle avait lieu peu après la publication d'un rapport du SCRS qui "met en lumière" l'évolution des menaces qui pèse sur les élus, notamment que "des auteurs de cybermenaces de (Chine) ont pris pour cible des membres de l’Alliance interparlementaire sur la Chine en 2021, y compris de multiples députés canadiens."
Ma, dans ses premiers commentaires publics, déclarait que l'attaque, que certains de ses collègues ont qualifie d'attentat terroriste, ne parviendrait pas à l'intimider et que son bureau restait disponible et au service de ses électeurs. Cette semaine à l'autre bout du pays la police arrêtait un suspect pour avoir envoyé des menaces de mort au maire de Brampton. Bref il ne faut pas manquer de courage pour se lancer en politique dorénavant.
Le bureau du Conseil privé signallait l'an dernier l'augmentation des menaces de tout genre contre la classe politique au Canada depuis la pandémie. Lors de ces seules premières années 55 menaces de mort avaient été proférées, notamment contre le premier ministre Trudeau mais également contre une douzaine de ses ministres. Ceci s'est répandu ailleurs également, notamment en Europe, et tant au niveau municipal et provincial que fédéral. Nombre de politiciennes même au niveau municipal ont notamment décidé de jeter l'éponge au Québec.
Lors d'un sondage l'an dernier de 1380 élus municipaux 58% disaient avoir été victimes de violence verbale, 46% d'intimidation et 36% de harcèlement. Plusieurs tiennent bon mais condamnent les gestes commis, notamment sur les médias sociaux.
Une politicienne de Québec, Bianca Dussault, a récemment, après une longue réflexion sur ses quatre premières années parfois difficiles en politique, décidé de briguer un nouveau mandat, justement afin de montrer à ses détracteurs qu'elle n'allait pas se laisser intimider. "Je vais me présenter parce que j'aime trop mon travail et j'ai à coeur de servir les citoyens de mon district, dit-elle au moment de l'annonce. C'est hors de question de les laisser tomber pour des gens qui se cachent derrière leur écran pour m'attaquer."
CHOC KÉNYAN
Trente cinq ans après le genre de printemps kényan qui s'est élevé contre le régime de Daniel Arap Moi et pavé le chemin du multipartisme et de la démocratie, les Kényans étaient de retour dans les rues du pays pour marquer cette commémoration du Saba Saba tout en s'interrogeant sur l'alarmant cheminement du régime actuel de William Ruto.
Elu en 2022 celui-ci semble avoir pris des habitudes plutôt propres aux despotes du passé, serrant la vis sur les libertés individuelles et la presse tout en accueillant la contestation par la répression. C'est la violence dirigée contre les manifestations sur la chèreté il y a un an qui a donné un double anniversaire aux rassemblements de cet été dans plusieurs villes du pays, marqués avec l'ardeur de la jeunesse d'un mouvement associé principalement à la génération Z.
Malheureu-sement certains rassemble-ments ont donné lieu à de nouveaux éclats et l'on soupçonne que d'autres méthodes favorisées par les hommes forts n'aient été employées. Le régime a-t-il provoqué ces violences en envoyant des plombiers taper sur le tas? C'est l'analyse de certains observateurs de mouve-ments sociaux qui ont condamné l'utilisation d'agents provocateurs lors des rassemblements.
La Commission nationale kényane des droits humains a dénoncé les abus de policiers "qui opéraient habillés en civil avec des véhicules non identifiés" et collaboraient "avec des gangs de criminels" dans plusieurs villes, notamment la capitale, qui a été bouclée lors des plus récents éclats. La police a nié ces accusations. Selon certains médias les incidents se seraient étendus à 17 des 47 comtés du pays. La création de ces comtés, dirigés par des gouverneurs, a été une manière de décentraliser le pays lors des réformes du passé, mais du travail reste à faire face à un état encore omnipotent.
Rutto n'a d'ailleurs jamais caché son admiration pour ses prédécesseurs plutôt sévères et son approche rappelle celle de Moi à plusieurs égards, notamment l'affaiblissement des institutions et le creusement des clivages ethniques, portant le blâme sur l'ethnie Kikuyu. "Nous sommes très en colère, et moi aussi, je trouve qu'il n'est pas justifiable d'empêcher les gens de manifester, déclare un manifestant, Francis Awino sur les ondes de France24. C'est une erreur, on a l'impression de revenir à l'époque de Moi quand les Kényans ne pouvaient pas s'exprimer."
Sur ce fond de désordre l'ancien dirigeant Raila Odinga a proposé plusieurs réformes afin de calmer la colère, notamment de s'attaquer à l'inflation à la source du soulèvement initial, puis de rénover la police, accusée d'attiser les tensions davantage. L'ancien premier ministre a écorché les forces de l'ordre "qui tirent sur les gens en toute impunité, une force héritée des colonialistes".
Le 25 juin 19 personnes ont été tuées lors d'affrontements puis 31 le 7 juillet tandis que des commerces étaient saccagés et des véhicules incendiés. Le nombre de décès dépasse déjà celui des manifestations historiques de 1990. C'est ajouter au sanglant bilan de 60 morts en 2024, sans parler de centaines d'arrestations, la plupart sans chef d'accusation. Les concessions de 1990 n'ont de toute évidence pas mis fin aux violences, qui ont repris dès la prochaine année, pour se reproduire en 2007 lors d'importants massacres ethniques faisant plus d'un millier morts et 600000 déplacés.
Dix ans plus tard des élections donnèrent lieu à de nouveaux affrontements, moins sanglants, mais plus récents, montrant l'aspect périodique de ce genre de violence. Mais tous ne perdent pas espoir. "Bon an mal an, malgré le tribalisme, les haines politiques tenaces, les massacres, les manipulations des politiciens de tout bord, le Kenya part à la conquête de sa diversité, observe Bruno Meyerfeld dans son livret Kenya: les séismes du Rift, à petit pas certes, mais assez pour prouver qu'Harambee (unité) n'est pas un vain mot, une devise en l'air."
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